The financial market enters a critical 72 hours, with the price of Ethereum becoming the focal point.

Market Observation

Recently, there have been signs of easing in China-US trade relations, with both sides agreeing to extend the suspension period for certain tariff measures. However, the global market remains in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. While there is a general expectation that the Federal Open Market Committee will maintain interest rates, the market is more focused on the timing of the first rate cut. Analysts have differing opinions on this, with some predicting a rate cut starting in September, while others believe it may be delayed until December or later.

In this context, some strategists warn that global central bank easing policies, relaxation of financial regulations, and policy shifts could trigger larger market bubbles. With a series of important economic data and events about to be released, the market is entering a crucial "72 hours", the outcome of which will lay the groundwork for market trends for the remainder of the year.

The Ethereum market is undergoing structural changes, primarily driven by macro policies, capital inflows, and shifts in investor sentiment. The legislative process for cryptocurrencies and the inflow of funds into spot ETFs are injecting confidence into the market. Ethereum is transforming from "computational fuel" to "yield-bearing reserve asset," and its staking yield characteristics are attracting institutional funds. The relative decline of Bitcoin's market dominance may also encourage capital to flow into other mainstream cryptocurrencies like Ethereum.

The price of Bitcoin has recently fluctuated between $117,000 and $120,000, and analysts have differing opinions on the short-term trend. Some anticipate a potential drop to the $108,000-$110,000 range, while others believe that if it breaks through $120,000, it could directly surge to $125,000.

After Ethereum returned to $3,800, analysts are generally bullish. Its futures open interest has reached a new high of $5.8 billion, indicating optimistic market sentiment. On-chain data also shows a significant increase in network activity. Most analysts believe that the $4,000 to $4,100 range is a critical point for further upward movement.

It is worth noting that today marks the 10th anniversary of Ethereum, with its price rising from $0.3 to $3800, making it the 28th largest asset globally. The Layer2 network Linea announced its tokenomics and plans to airdrop 10% of tokens to early users. In terms of regulation, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that it will begin accepting applications for the first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses on August 1 and requires real-name verification for all compliant stablecoin holders.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $117,951, daily trading volume $40.132 billion
• Ethereum: $3,803.76, daily trading volume $33.228 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 74 (Greed)
• Market Share: BTC 60.7%, Ether 11.9%
• Total liquidation amount in 24 hours: 301 million USD

ETF Capital Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: +$79.9781 million, net inflow for 4 consecutive days
• Ethereum ETF: +$219 million, net inflow for 18 consecutive days

Important Events Today

• Ethereum 10th Anniversary Celebration Live Stream
• Federal Reserve interest rate decision announced
• U.S. Core PCE Price Index Year-on-Year Released

Market Trends

• Institutional investors are increasing their purchases of Bitcoin.
• Linea announces the token distribution plan, with 9% allocated through airdrops.
• Multiple addresses accumulated the purchase of 648,000 Ether within half a month.
• Some companies are transforming into Ethereum treasury reserve companies.

The current market sentiment is leaning towards optimism, but it is still necessary to closely monitor the impact of the Federal Reserve's decisions and important economic data on the market. A breakthrough in the Ethereum price range of $4000-4100 will be the focus of market attention.