Crypto Market Weekly Report

Overview of BTC and ETH This Week

market performance

This week, the crypto market is overall showing a downward trend. Bitcoin has seen a significant decline, mainly influenced by the Mt. Gox compensation distribution incident. The volatility of Ethereum has decreased, indicating that the negative impact following the listing of the spot ETF is fading, which is beneficial for its long-term price trend.

Important Event

Mt. Gox compensation progress

The Mt. Gox bankruptcy compensation process continues, with BTC being transferred from addresses to exchanges for compensation this week, with 32,899 coins remaining to be compensated. Although the BTC price did not show significant fluctuations at the beginning of the compensation plan, as other uncertainties increased and market purchasing power declined, this event began to affect the price.

Federal Reserve Meeting

This Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the interest rate at 5.25%, in line with market expectations. Subsequently, Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in September, which also met expectations. After the meeting, the market had fully digested the expectation of a rate cut in September and raised the anticipated cut from 25 basis points to 50 basis points. This led to a rise in U.S. stocks, a comprehensive decline in bond market yields, and funds flowing from the crypto market to the stock and bond markets, resulting in insufficient liquidity in the crypto market, a decline in purchasing power, and a phenomenon where U.S. stocks rose while the crypto market fell.

Geopolitical situation escalates

On July 31, the supreme leader of Hamas was killed in an airstrike in Tehran, Iran. This incident has exacerbated the instability in the Middle East, and if Iran directly intervenes in the conflict, the United States may be drawn into war. Following the news, US stocks briefly fell, while crude oil and gold prices rose in the short term.

Altcoin Overview This Week

overall performance

The market sentiment index has dropped significantly to 12% this week, indicating an extreme fear phase, down from last week's 42%. This is mainly influenced by macro policy uncertainties, escalating geopolitical situations, and the ongoing compensation from Mt.Gox. Particularly after the Federal Reserve hinted at a rate cut in September, funds have flowed into U.S. Treasury bonds and stocks, further reducing liquidity in the crypto market. These factors have a significant impact on Altcoins, with investors tending to avoid risks and adopt a wait-and-see attitude.

price performance

This week's gainers list does not show obvious sector concentration characteristics, with the top gaining tokens scattered across various sectors, and the gains are all lower than last week, indicating a significant adjustment in the overall Altcoin market. Meme tokens performed poorly, with most showing a downward trend, and only a few tokens rising against the trend.

social media hot topics

According to social media data statistics, the hottest topic this week is L1 public chain.

sector performance

According to weekly return rates, the best-performing track is SocialFi, while the worst is Meme coins. In the SocialFi track, TON performed strongly, rising 2.41% this week, with an annual return rate as high as 458.84%. However, other SocialFi projects generally fell. The Meme track performed poorly overall, with only 3 projects among the top 500 by market capitalization rising, while the rest all declined. This is mainly due to the market downturn, with investors tending to be risk-averse and insufficient market liquidity.

Outlook for Next Week

1. Bitcoin: Mt.Gox compensation is ongoing, coupled with increasing macro uncertainty and the expectation of a rate cut in September has been digested, market liquidity is flowing from the crypto market to the stock and bond markets, leading to insufficient purchasing power. It is expected that BTC will maintain a wide range of fluctuations next week.

2. Ethereum: After the approval of the spot ETF, investors continue to "sell the news." Grayscale's ETHE is still being sold off in large quantities; although it has decreased from the initial phase, over 40,000 units are still sold daily, putting significant selling pressure on ETH. In the short term, the buying power is insufficient, and coupled with the overall market sentiment being low, it may continue to pull back.

3. Altcoin: Affected by multiple uncertain factors, investor sentiment has obviously declined, becoming more cautious about investing in various tokens. The market lacks new hot tracks or events, and next week, Altcoin may still follow the trend of the overall market, making it difficult to see an independent market.