The operation mechanism of the market is not a simple linear relationship, but a complex expectation game process. Taking the recent financial market as an example, we can clearly see this. At the beginning of 2025, the market generally expected a continued interest rate cut policy, which led to a comprehensive rise in encryption currencies and the U.S. stock market. However, when the Federal Reserve suddenly announced that it would not cut interest rates, the market expectations were shattered, and coupled with the impact of tariff policies, from February to April, most asset prices experienced significant falls, with some even halving.

Currently, the rate cut in September has become a market consensus. Investors have even anticipated the number of rate cuts in the next two years and reflected these expectations in the current asset prices. It is precisely this expectation that has driven U.S. stocks and Bitcoin to continuously challenge new highs in recent months.

This phenomenon highlights an important market principle: prices often reflect market expectations in advance. Investors need to understand that when an event becomes consensus, its impact may have already been absorbed by the market. Therefore, the real challenge lies in predicting changes in market expectations, rather than just predicting the event itself.

For investors, this means a need to assess market sentiment and consensus more cautiously, as these factors may influence short-term market direction more than actual events. At the same time, one should also be wary of the risks brought about by unmet expectations, as we saw at the beginning of 2025.

In this rapidly changing financial environment, maintaining a clear and flexible investment strategy has become increasingly important. Understanding the complex relationship between market expectations and actual events can help investors make more informed decisions and remain stable amid market fluctuations.