Crypto Market Observation and Analysis

Market Overview

The latest data released on the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July shows that inflationary pressures exceeded expectations, with an annual rate of 3.3%, significantly higher than the expected value of 2.5%. This data has dampened market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Some analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates during an inflationary upcycle, it could lead to a repeat of the significant weakening of the dollar seen in 2007-2008.

The price of Bitcoin has pulled back after breaking through the $124,000 high, dropping to around $117,200. Some analysts believe that $117,000 is a key support level, and if it cannot be maintained, it may temporarily pause its strong upward momentum. In the short term, Bitcoin might fluctuate between $119,000 and $117,500. If it breaks below the $112,000 support level, it could further pull back to the $105,000 to $110,000 range. There are also views that Bitcoin may pull back to $112,000, or even $109,700 or $107,000 before rebounding.

Ethereum approached $4,800 yesterday, just a step away from its all-time high. However, with the release of the PPI data, the price retreated to around $4,450. Technical analysis shows that Ethereum needs to turn $4,631 into support to confirm further upward movement. Some analysts expect Ethereum to gain upward momentum after a correction within the $4,000 to $4,400 range. In the long term, some institutions predict a year-end target price of $7,500 for Ethereum.

Market Data

• Bitcoin price: $118,952, year-to-date increase of 27.02%
• Ethereum price: $4,629.73, year-to-date increase of 38.53%
• Market Fear and Greed Index: 60 (Greed)
• Market Share: BTC 58.7%, ETH 13.8%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.1%/50.9%
• Total liquidations in the last 24 hours: 1 billion USD

Capital Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: +$231 million, sustained net inflow for 7 days
• Ethereum ETF: +$640 million, continuous net inflow for 8 days

Industry News

• The SEC has postponed the decision on the Solana ETF proposals from Bitwise and 21Shares until October 16.
• Sequans plans to acquire 100,000 bitcoins before 2030
• Dinari will launch a blockchain based on Avalanche, positioned as "stock token DTCC".
• BtcTurk suspected of being hacked, approximately $48 million in crypto assets transferred unusually.
• The LIP-021 proposal has been approved, and Lista DAO will burn 20% of the tokens.

Market Outlook

In the cryptocurrency market, analysis indicates that Bitcoin's market capitalization share is declining, while the total market capitalization of altcoins has increased by 50% since early July, suggesting that "altcoin season" may fully arrive in September. The price of BNB has surpassed $865, reaching an all-time high, and SKALE has risen over 120% since integrating new features on August 13.

Some analysts have shown strong confidence in the future performance of Ethereum, believing that the upcoming technological upgrades significantly increase the likelihood of Ethereum breaking its historical high in the second half of 2025. These technological advancements, combined with the synergistic effects of AI and zero-knowledge proof technology, are expected to drive the continuous expansion of Ethereum's network TVL, strengthen its value storage attributes, and support prices moving to higher levels.