Analysis of the Peak Value that Bitcoin May Reach in This Bull Run

Bitcoin has recently shown a strong upward momentum, which inevitably raises the question: how high can the price of Bitcoin rise in this market cycle? This article will explore a series of on-chain valuation models and cycle analysis tools to investigate the potential peak price that Bitcoin might reach. Although predictions cannot replace flexible responses based on real-time data, these analytical frameworks can help us better understand the current market position and possible future developments.

price prediction tool analysis

Several historically accurate valuation models provide us with a strong market background reference. Although reactions based on real-time data are usually more effective than simple price predictions, studying these indicators can still provide important insights into market behavior. When macroeconomic factors, derivatives, and on-chain data begin to show warning signals, it is often a good time to take profits, regardless of whether a specific price target has been reached. Exploring these valuation tools can assist in strategic decision-making when combined with broader market analysis.

Key models include:

1. Top Cap (: The peak valuation is predicted by multiplying the historical average market cap by 35. This model accurately predicted the peak in 2017 but overestimated during the 2020-2021 cycle. Currently, the model predicts over $500,000, which seems increasingly unrealistic.

2. Delta Peak ) Delta Top (: By subtracting the average market cap from the realized market cap, a more realistic prediction is generated. This model predicted a peak of $80,000 to $100,000 in the previous cycle.

3. Terminal Price ): Based on the coin age destruction calculation after supply adjustments, it is the model closest to each peak in history, including the $64,000 top in 2021. The current forecast is approximately $221,000, potentially rising to $250,000 or higher, considered the most reliable macro Bitcoin top prediction model.

( MVRV ratio analysis

The MVRV ratio compares the market capitalization to the realized capitalization, providing an important indicator of investor sentiment. This ratio typically peaks around 4 during major cycles, currently at 2.34, indicating there is still significant room for an increase. Historically, when MVRV approaches 3.5 to 4, long-term holders begin to realize substantial gains, usually marking the maturity of the cycle. However, due to diminishing returns, this cycle may not reach a full 4. Using a more conservative estimate of 3.5, we can start to predict a more realistic peak.

![On-chain data analysis: Where might Bitcoin reach its peak this cycle?])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-3443be6d8a57dbe81833791eb38eb1f2.webp###

( Timing Analysis and Target Price Calculation

By analyzing "BTC growth since the self-cycle low point", we found that the previous Bitcoin cycles peaked about 1060 days from the low point. Currently, we are about 930 days into this cycle. If this pattern continues, the peak may arrive in about 130 days.

![On-chain data analysis: Where might Bitcoin reach its peak this cycle?])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-b97685c7907b12579f1250638ddaf835.webp###

Historically, price increases driven by FOMO typically occur at the end of cycles, leading to a rapid rise in the realized price. Assuming the growth rate is halved again due to diminishing returns, the realized price could increase by 65% from the current $47,000, potentially reaching around $78,000 by mid-October.

Combining the projected price target of $78,000 and a conservative 3.5 MVRV target, we arrive at a potential price peak for Bitcoin of $273,000. While this may seem ambitious, historical parabolic surges indicate that such a trend could occur in weeks rather than months. Although the peak is more likely to be between $150,000 and $200,000, both mathematical and on-chain evidence suggest that higher valuations are at least possible.

( Conclusion

Predicting the exact peak of Bitcoin inherently involves uncertainty, as there are too many variables to fully account for. What we can do is establish a probabilistic framework based on historical precedents and on-chain data. Tools such as the MVRV ratio, terminal price, and Delta peaks have repeatedly proven their value in predicting market tops. While the target of $273,000 may seem optimistic, it is rooted in historical patterns, current network behavior, and cyclical timing logic.

Ultimately, the best strategy is to react based on real-time data rather than fixed price levels. Use these tools to refine investment hypotheses, but remain flexible enough to take profits when the broader ecosystem starts to signal a top. The market is unpredictable, and only by maintaining vigilance and adaptability can one succeed in this cryptocurrency market filled with opportunities and challenges.

![On-chain data analysis: Where might Bitcoin reach its peak in this cycle?])https://img-cdn.gateio.im/webp-social/moments-adcb268e260f3556c2747de7850bee52.webp###